Friday, November 10, 2006

“Staying the Course”: A Flip-flop of Fortunes.   [Kellyanne Conway]

According to an Election Night survey of 800 Actual Voters conducted by my firm, the polling company™, inc, compared to 2004, Iraq gained five points and “war on terror” lost five points as the primary motivating factor that brought people to the polls.

This reversal played a key role in Republicans’ loss.Iraq was on the ballot in every race this year, a significant advantage for Democrats, and fewer Americans were thinking homeland security, a disadvantage for the President and his party. In fact, 80% of those who named Iraq their top issue supported Democrats for the U.S. House and 76% opted for Dems in U.S. Senate races (versus 19% who backed Republicans in each race). 

Republican candidates did not enjoy quite as strong a margin among those who reported “terrorism” as their top concern: 60% of voters who selected the war on terror backed Republicans and 57% did do in Senate contests (compared to 37% who supported Democratic candidates in both races).

Still, Americans were not single-issue voters, a fair reminder as the legislative agendas are drafted for the new Congress.  “Jobs/ the economy” placed third overall with 13% and “morality/ family values” garnered 10% - the only other issue on the list of ten to net double-digits.  “Healthcare” (7%), “education” (5%), “immigration” (5%), “taxes” (4%), “abortion” (3%), and the “environment” (2%) rounded out the list.

• There was no gender gap with respect to the priority placed on Iraq by voters, with men and women tied at 22%.  However, men were more apt than their female counterparts to select the war on terror (21%-15%).  Men were also more likely than women to focus on jobs and the economy, while women paid greater attention to education than did men in making their electoral decisions.
• As voters’ age increased, so did their likelihood of naming Iraq the most pressing Election Day concern.  Conversely, the tendency of voters to select terrorism as their top issue decreased with age.
• Jobs and the economy were of special importance to 45-54 year olds, African-Americans, and upper-income households ($70K+).
• Groups more likely than most to elevate morality and family values on Election Day included – surprisingly to some — 18-34 year olds, moms, self-identified Republicans, and ideological conservatives.

Another key difference between the elections of 2006 and 2004 was voters’ perceptions of steadfastness and consistency.  In 2004, President Bush led Senator Kerry for months on the question of “Who is more likely to take a position and stick with it?”  Accusations that Kerry was a “flip-flopper” dogged his campaign and even more traditionally Democratically-leaning voters like Catholics, Hispanics, women and blue collar workers rewarded the GOP’s consistency with higher numbers of votes. Consistency was seen as principle, intractability, an unwavering commitment.

Two short years later, consistency has shifted from political asset to an electoral liability. That ‘stick-with-it’ spirit was now viewed as stubbornness, from a ‘stay the course’/ ‘Rumsfeld will remain’ insistence on Iraq, to the inability to admit a mistake in some of the scandal-ridden races. Some of the same voters who previously valued this steadfastness rejected it.

Another startling finding is the rebuke of the Republican Party by a majority of voters – including Republicans.  When voters were asked how their regard for the Republican party had changed over the past two years, an eye-popping 59% noted their opinion had “gotten worse.”  Just 32% said the same about Democrats.

• The discontent with the GOP extended to members of all ideologies and political affiliations, as 35% of conservatives and 34% of self-identified Republicans indicated their opinion of their own party had worsened.
• No more than 15% of any demographic group studied (including Republicans) said their opinion of the party had improved over the past two years.
• Though in smaller measure, Democrats also had definite detractors.  Groups more likely than most to say their impression of the Dems had worsened included Republicans, conservatives, frequent church-goers, men aged 55+, Protestants, and those for whom the war on terror, immigration, taxes, and family values were the most important issues of the election.
• A common disgust for all politicians was shared by 13% of voters who said their views of Republicans and Democrats had deteriorated.

By a Margin of Nearly 3-to-1, Americans Vote for Small Government, Even if it Means Fewer Services.  When given the choice between a “larger federal government that provided more services and charged higher taxes” and a “smaller federal government that provided fewer services and charged lower taxes,” Americans indicated a clear desire to downsize.  In fact, 62% of voters preferred the smaller government – and with intensity as 41% would definitely pick a leaner administration.  By comparison, just 22% opted for the more expansive government.

• There was a definite gender gap in these responses.  While majorities of both men and women favored a small government, men were notable more likely than women to do so (68%-57%).  Women were more inclined then men to opt for a larger federal government that did more and charged more (27%-18%).
• Adherents of all three political parties agreed that small was superior to large – though with drastically different intensities (85% of Republicans, 65% of Independents, and 42% of Democrats).
• Ideological liberals were among the only demographic groups studied more likely to favor a big government over a smaller one (46%-33%).

11/10 02:57 PM